The 2023 Manhattan market showed many storylines: higher interest rates, inflation, low supply, off market bids, etc..
This article is a compilation of data and boots on the ground experience. As advisors it's very important to understand the client's needs but equally important to explain what the market is doing in a simple digestible manner. Here's my attempt:
To date, 2023 demand and liquidity was below trend compared to 2022 and 2021. The 2023 closed sales data is near 2019 trends, but the end of 2023 indicates demand rolling over earlier without any noticeable Fall market rally. The 2019 NYC sales market was a year that saw price declines between 15% and 25% after peaking in 2015/2016, depending on unit size and neighborhood. There are very close parallels to 2019 and 2023. However, 2019 saw a late boost into early 2020 that was immediately stopped by Covid lock downs. Today's speculation and outlook for 2024 is if the consumer is in a better position vs the consumer in early 2020 since we saw such a frenzy in 2021 when pent-up-demand was unleashed with lockdowns lifted.
Supply this year has trended below 2019/2020/2021/2022 levels which has kept prices at a slight stasis, since lower supply has followed lower demand. Historically, election years have always seen a 10-13% dip in demand between the months of June-October as buyer's use a "wait and see" approach. Overall, we should still see suppressed levels of inventory until the Spring 2024 listing season, but buyers should anticipate an increase in demand making for a busy Spring purchase season while the summer to fall market will be noticeably slower into election time.
That said, here are the real WINNERS and LOSERS of 2023:
- Winner - buyers looking for homes that need full gut renovations today is the widest margin of ppsf between renovated and unrenovated homes
- Loser - seller of co-op/condos in need of a renovations
- Winner - Seller of 4+ bedroom homes as demand in this segment has increased
- Loser - Sellers in studio/1 bedrooms in condos built before 2016 as newer product attracts today's buyers
- Loser - Sellers in neighborhoods viewed as opportunistic: FiDi, Hells Kitchen, Harlem, LES
- Winner - Sellers in neighborhoods viewed as established locations: West Village, UWS, UES, Central Park South, Tribeca
- Winner - Sellers that offer outdoor space as this remains the most sought after apartment feature
- Winner - Landlords in high-end luxury homes still getting record PPSF for rentals
- Loser - Landlords in high density doorman buildings as pricing power peaked in July 2023 and concessions are increasing (I.E. Midtown condos, FiDi condos)
If you're trying to determine what the right course of action to take in 2024 please send me an email and we can set up a time to discuss - [email protected]. The best advice I can give now is to lean into a professional you trust because to make a confident decision is one that is educated. In conclusion, below are links that will help you be a better and well rounded consumer for all things NYC real estate:
Elegran | Forbes Global Properties weekly insight report (Dec 4th): https://www.elegran.com/
Valuing outdoor space with UrbanDigs and Jonathan Miller: https://youtu.be/_
NYC Holiday Tipping Guide for building staff: https://www.
NYC New Development News: https://newyorkyimby.
** Info from the article was derived from Our Team's NYC Real Estate Data Partner: www.urbandigs.com/